Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process
Several members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
