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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts believe the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.